The NFL schedule kicks the Carolina Panthers while they’re down, sending them to the Big Easy for a Week 14 odds clash with division rivals, New Orleans Saints.
This divisional matchup will be Carolina’s third straight road game and its fourth road stop in the past five contests, which puts the 1-11 Panthers behind the eight ball before they even take the field.
New Orleans has its own problems, with quarterback Derek Carr running the risk of missing this game due to his second concussion in a month as well as a hip injury. That has backup Jameis Winston on track to start in Week 14, which could actually be an upgrade for this NOLA offense.
I run down the NFL odds for this NFC South showdown and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Panthers at Saints on December 10.
Panthers vs Saints odds
Panthers vs Saints predictions
Normally, a team with a record as bad as the Carolina Panthers would be in full tank mode for the home stretch of the season.
However, with the Panthers’ 2024 draft pick belonging to the Chicago Bears and the coaching staff essentially singing for their supper over the next five games, Carolina’s motivations are mixed.
The New Orleans Saints are equally puzzling, especially with the downfall of this once-stingy defense.
New Orleans ranked Top 5 in EPA allowed per play in the opening six weeks of action but have since slid to 23rd in that advanced metric, allowing an average of 26.5 points over their previous six outings. An injury to shutdown corner Marshon Lattimore has compounded those problems.
The Panthers don’t pose much of a threat offensively but did score 18 points in a loss at Tampa Bay on Sunday. That was their highest production since scoring 21 points against Miami back in Week 6.
Offensive coordinator Thomas Brown went run-heavy with his play calling, picking up 133 yards rushing on 34 carries against a Bucs defense that sits among the best at stuffing the rush.
While the Panthers only gained 3.9 yards per attempt, they ran a methodical pace and chewed up almost 34 minutes of possession. Running back Chuba Hubbard had 104 yards on 25 attempts along with two touchdowns. He’s given this offense its brightest spot since… well, all season.
New Orleans isn’t as stout at stopping the run game and has allowed 4.8 yards per carry to its last three foes, including 142 yards rushing to Detroit in Week 13. To make matters worse, the Saints lost interior lineman and top run-stopper Malcolm Roach to a season-ending injury last weekend.
If the Panthers can pick up gains on the ground and play a paced attack, that will limit the amount of touches NOLA gets with the football and could lead QB Jameis Winston to press – which is never a good result.
While Winston brings a bigger arm to the table than Carr, he’s a high-risk, high-reward QB. He’s completed just over 53% of his passes with two touchdowns and three interceptions on 47 attempts.
Carolina’s defense is not great, but it is the strong suit of this club and the stop unit recently got a shot in the arm with the return of some injured starters. The Panthers gave up 21 points to Tampa Bay (covering the spread for just the second time this season) and limited Tennessee to only 17 points in Week 12.
It’s possible New Orleans doesn’t get the chance to score enough points to cover this sizable spread and while Carolina is being priced like a team on the tank, it certainly won’t be playing like it.
My best bet: Carolina +6 (-117 at Pinnacle)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Panthers vs Saints same-game parlay
Chuba Hubbard Over 13.5 rush attemptsChuba Hubbard Over 56.5 rushing yardsAlvin Kamara anytime TD
+425 at bet365
Hubbard is getting the lion’s share of touches with Thomas Brown calling a run-heavy playbook.
Hubbard had 100+ vs. the Bucs and now faces a much softer Saints run stop, with projections calling for 60 or more yards on the ground.
Given the QB questions for the Saints, Kamara is going to get a lot of touches on the ground and through the air. Carolina has allowed a league-high 20 touchdowns to running backs.
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